Revisiting Kenneth Waltz's Theories about Iranian Nuclearization in Today's Climate- Drew Holm 12/2/21
In a 2012 edition of Foreign Affairs political scientist Kenneth N. Waltz argued that the Middle East would become more peaceful if Iran obtained a nuclear weapon because it would fill the power balance created by a nuclear armed Israel. While in 2012, there was risk of Iranian nuclearization, in 2021, we are closer than ever to testing Waltz’s theory. Ever since the United States pulled out the JCPOA in 2018 Iran has renewed its attempts to build a nuclear weapon. As of November 30, 2021 Iran has advanced their nuclear program further than ever before. According to the Associated Press, “Iran now enriches small amounts of uranium up to 60% purity — a short step from weapons-grade levels of 90%” (Karimi 2021). This progress puts Iran about 18-24 months away from producing a nuclear bomb (Knell 2021). The United States and the other signatories of the JCPOA started meeting with Iran in Vienna on Monday in attempts to reenter the nuclear deal, and stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Despite the renewal of talk, there is little optimism about a renewal of the deal. Iran “demanded a “guarantee by America not to impose new sanctions” or not re-impose previously lifted sanctions” (Karimi 2021). These demands are not likely to be met, as the United States is aiming to replicate the previous Iran deal which lifted sanctions regarding nuclearization, but not other sanctions regarding subjects like the state sponsorship of terrorism. If these negotiations fail then Waltz’s theory will be tested. Israel has continued to say that they would resort to attacking Iran to prevent them from attaining a nuclear weapon. When asked about the issue, former Israeli National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror, said “"Israel cannot live with a situation in which the Iranians are getting closer and closer to the bomb, and it will soon have to make a decision how to stop it," (Knell 2021). If true, this claim threatens to completely disprove Waltz’s idea that a nuclear Iran would create a more peaceful Middle East. If Israel launches an attack against Iran to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon, then Iran would most likely respond to Israel, as it has “pledged “a shocking response” to any such attack. It is assumed it would use its own forces and co-ordinate with its well-armed proxies spread across the region: Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has tens of thousands of rockets, Shia militias in Syria and Iraq, Yemen's rebel Houthi movement, and Islamic Jihad militants in the Gaza Strip” (2021). If these events occurred, it would most likely result in a major war in the Middle East, unlike the minor conflicts that Waltz projects. It is imperative that the current negotiations are successful at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, as Israel would most likely launch an attack against Iran that would elicit a response from Iran. For the world’s sake it is crucial that Waltz is correct and an Iranian nuclear weapon will create peace in the Middle Peace, because if not, then the world is at risk of experiencing a war between Iran and Israel in the next few years.
Karimi, Nasser. “Iran Strikes Hard Line as Talks over Nuclear Deal Resume.” AP NEWS. Associated Press, November 30, 2021. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-middle-east-iran-united-states-iran-nuclear-82a11f19f1c60c8dd5732533a0b07658.
Knell, Yolande. “Iran Nuclear Programme: Threat of Israeli Strike Grows.” BBC News. BBC, November 23, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-59322152.
I completely agree with your point. I think it's really important to note that this theory being tested would be very telling. With so much uncertainty and instability within the country it's impossible to assume that giving Iran nuclear weapons would strengthen them and is that a risk we are willing to take.
ReplyDeleteI like your thoughts in this text. It is very interesting and enlightening. But could you then say that if Israel attacks Iran because they want to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, Holtz theory can never prove itself at all? I mean that if Israel attacks Iran, Iran doesn't even have nuclear weapons yet. And I think Holtz is talking about when Iran already has weapons. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteI guess you could say I stretched Waltz's idea when I addressed Israel conducting a preemptive strike, but I also think that it also demonstrates the massive threat a nuclearized Iran would be. Israel is willing to start a potentially devastating war in order to prevent an Iranian nuclearization. I was using Waltz's argument to argue that the only way to prevent a major war in the Middle East is to succesfully re-negotiate the Iran nuclear deal.
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